Friday, March 11, 2011

Equity correction spread to developed countries

US stock markets dropped sharply overnight. According to a Bloomberg report, the drop was triggered by concern about a slowing economy- following an increase in jobless claims, a wider American trade deficit and a slowdown in China’s export growth. We can see from the charts below that the decline is not only confined to US equity but it has also spread over to UK & Germany as well as major commodity exporters, such as Australia & Canada. The only exception is Russia which may have benefited from the strong rally in crude oil. You would see that most of the indices have broken below their respective uptrend line. This bearish breakdown could further damper the poor sentiment in our stock market.


Chart 1: DJIA's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 2: S&P500's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 3: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 4: FTSE's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 5: DAX's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 6: AORD's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 7: TSX's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 8: RTSI's daily chart as at Mar 10, 2011 (Source: Stockcharts)

8 comments:

Heng said...

Hi Alex,

What is ur advice for current violate/unstable market?
Buy in undervalue Stock OR "wait & see"?

Thanks
Best regard
Heng

Unknown said...

Dear Alex,

Scomien is falling a lot, do see it will fall further down? what is the future of this account. I got this when it was 1.00 last year.

Anom said...

Hi Alex,

What is your comment on Landmark. They have already started their project in Bintan and it's quite cheap now at around 1.40 It's good for long term say a 5 years horizon.

leslieroycarter said...

Hi alex:
Do the double dip predictions become clearer now given all the bad indicators more prevalent than the previous one?

Alex Lu said...

Hi leslieroycarter

More & more negative news are piling up in the market and yet the market is still standing. What gives....

This is one of the contrarian indicators that I look for in gauging the underlining strength of the market. I must admit that the market's ability to withstanding so many body blows (high inflation, Europe problems re-surfacing, unrest in MENA states & now Japan earthquake) is slowly causing me to re-examine my cautious to bearish outlook for the market. Maybe I should be neutral or even a bit bullish?!

Alex Lu said...

Hi william

Landmark is trading near its uptrend line support of RM1.30-1.32. Its immediate horizontal resistance is at RM1.45.

I have not read any report about its projects. Its current operation is however not very exciting. Its incurred a small loss of RM4 mil FY2010 as compared to a small profit of RM10 mil last year.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Anthony

Scomien is now hanging onto its strong horizontal support of RM0.75. If this support failed, it could slide further- possibly to its next strong horizontal support at RM0.50. Its strong horizontal resistance at RM0.85-0.90.

Scomien's financial performance is quite disappointing. It incurred a loss of RM11 mil for FY2010 as compared to a profit of RM61 mil in FY2009.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Heng

That's a tough question. To give the question a slight twist, imagine you are in March 2009: would you be buying or selling or doing nothing. On hindsight, we know that the market bottom. However, when you were there in March 2009, you didn't know. We are in such a situation now. Is this the top? We don't know. If you have too much invested in the market, then you should reduce some position. If you are under-invested in the market, then you may nibble some stocks as prices eased off.