Supermx: Earnings Jumped

Result Update

For QE31/12/2017, Supermx's net profit rose 29% q-o-q or 59% y-o-y to RM36 million while revenue rose 8% q-o-q or 42% y-o-y to RM336 million. Revenue rose y-o-y due to strong demand for gloves and higher output recorded. Profits rose due to higher revenue recorded, higher production capacity and also improved operational efficiency.


Table 1: Supermx's last 8 quarters' P&L

Graph 1: Supermx's last 45 quarters' P&L

Below is a comparison of the last 4 quarters' revenue, PBT, PAT, NP & EPS of the top 4 glove manufacturers against the preceding 4 quarters' numbers. This comparison is a bit unfair for Kossan because its latest result is QE30/9/2017 whereas Harta and Supermx have the results for QE31/12/2017 & Topglov's result is for QE30/11/2017. Since I am trying to make a point about Supermx, it sufficed that we compare it with Harta & Topglov. We can see that Harta's revenue and profits have the highest increase among these 4 companies. This is followed by Supermx and then Topglov. The point to note is that Supermx is finally catching up with the other players in this sector- something we have not seen for a while.


Graph 2: Top 4 glove manufacturers' recent changes in financial performance

Valuation

Supermx (closed at RM2.20 yesterday) is now trading at a PER of 16x (based on last 4 quarters' adjusted EPS of 13.70sen). At this PER, Supermx is the cheapest glove manufacturer listed on Bursa. From the table below, we can see that the other 3 players command PER ranging from 31 to 47 times. If we were to value Supermx at the average PER of 36.7 times and discount that by 20%, Supermx's fair value would be RM4.02.


Table 2: Glove Manufacturers' valuation by PER & PBR

The market is probably assigning a lower PER for Supermx because its major shareholder, Stanley Thai was found guilty of insider’s trading. He was sentenced to a 5-year jail term & a fine of RM5 million. Stanley is appealing that decision. I believe that a 20%-discount is sufficient to factor in the risk of business interruption if the appeal is rejected and Stanley has to serve the jail sentence.

Technical Outlook

Supermx is moving within a large band between RM1.70 and RM3.30. Within this trading band, its immediate support is at RM2.00 & immediate resistance is at RM2.40.


Chart: Supermx's monthly chart as at Feb 14, 2018 (Source: ShareInvestor)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance and attractive valuation, I am revising my rating for Supermx from a HOLD to a BUY.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.