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Thursday, July 26, 2012

Angry Comments Sanitized

Today I received 3 angry comments from 3pmsupertrading (let call him 3pm in short). Two of them I have reproduced below while the last one was simply expletive that serves no value. In the two comments below, certain offensive words have been deleted. I have also deleted a naughty remark about another blogger which I regard as an unfair comment. The two comments are:

hi alex can u pls check how many times u bring ppls to Holland recently? with all your bullish calls ended up helping the stock manipulator unload to us. WCT, YTLland, Fitters, Dialog, Perisai, just to name a few for the very recent. all your (word deleted) start with xxx may have a bullish breakout!! then your cock and bull story. many die in your hand (pen) pls do some good and stop shouting bullish this bullish that.


stop pretending you are a stock Guru!! (word deleted) off!!! you are the best gift god send to the PLC boss, becos u help them to dump the (word deleted) to us. stop posting (word deleted), stop writing nonsense, (unnecessary comment about another blogger). (words deleted) MAY HAVE A BULLISH BREAKOUT!!!


Let look at these comments objectively, even though the commenter did not. I would readily admit that 3pm has a point that some of my calls are "helping the stock manipulator unload to us". He might also be right that I'm "the best gift god send to the PLC boss, becos u help them to dump the (word deleted) to us." You can see from the charts below that the stocks mentioned by 3pm have all faltered & those who bought at the breakout point are trapped. That's the sad part of trading which we have to live with. Not everything goes as planned!

Chart 1: Dialog's daily chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Chart 2: Fitters's daily chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Chart 3: Perisai's daily chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts) 

 Chart 4: WCT's daily chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Chart 5: YTLLand's weekly chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts) 

However, all stocks that enter into an uptrend, have to start somewhere. They have to start with a bullish breakout- just like 3pm started life as a baby, like the rest of us. How can you tell whether a breakout is a genuine breakout while others are simply the result of gaming by stock manipulators or PLC bosses. To be frank, I wish I can do that, just as much as we wish we can tell whether a person will turn into a cold-blooded killer- like the guy who massacred 12 innocent persons in a Batman premiere in Colorado recently. If we can do that, should we play God by locking him up. So, in the stock market, we can never be too sure. We may have to try out some bullish breakout cautiously- buying at breakout or on subsequent pullback or adding to our position as the share price inched higher- and at all time, exercise careful money management. 

There are many stocks that I wish I had called a buy earlier. Johotin when it broke above the horizontal line at RM0.95 & the psychological RM1.00 level. Deleum when it broke above the ascending triangle at RM1.15 (or RM1.70 before the recent capital exercise). I saw the breakouts but I did not make the call because I thought they might not sustain. There are some which I did and they had done reasonably well. You can find them if you look through this blog slowly. I will not trumpet them nor would I hide the calls that did not work out.

Chart 6: Johotin's weekly chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)  


Chart 7: Deleum's weekly chart as at July 25, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts) 

Our market has entered an exciting stage after the FBMKLCI made new all-time high. Technically speaking, this technical milestone is a bullish signal. And yet, we do not feel that way because the market breadth is rather poor. The market sentiment is weak in our local bourse as well as in other global equity markets. The global economy is uncertain, with slowdown in US and China as well as an unresolved crisis in Eurozone. Because of that, we have to be cautious. The stocks that I picked are those that I've regarded as reasonably good bet. While I could have been wrong, I prefer them to some riskier 2nd & 3rd liners that are the flavor of the week. Some players are like sheep being led to their slaughter. They would buy risky stocks based on nothing but tips. All they need to justify the soundness of the tip is volume and that the "manipulators or PLC bosses" are more than willing to provide. Their urge to gamble cannot be denied, putting paid to the old saying that "A Fool and his money will soon part".

Finally, I like to advise all the readers (including  3pm) that the reward in the market commensurate with the risk that you take. Those who buy for quick gain must necessarily take high risk. Those who took high risk when they bought in the market during the US financial crisis in 2008, reaped handsome reward. In the stock market, we must not only concentrate on the upside. We must always weigh the reward you hoped for against the risk that is embedded in every investment or trade. 3pm's comments provided me with the excuse to make this point. I like to thank him but I have a small advice for him. Next time, just post the comment without the expletives & naughty remark. For that, your comments will not be published. I do not like to treat my readers' comments as spams.


27 comments:

Malaysia Stock Talk said...

Hi Alex,

Just ignore than comments from 3pm and continue to share your blog postings.

Most probably when he makes money, he/ she would claim that is his/ her analytical and stock picking skills.

When he/ she loses money, he/ she probably blames others.

He/ she forgets that one is responsible for his/ her own decisions and it makes himself/ herself look childish blaming others for his/ her own investment decisions...

Yap said...

Hi Alex!
I do agree with you. Reader should analysis further and consider wisely before taking their position. Nothing is free in the world, you should not get the blame. Keep up your written, I really enjoy it, cheers.

Best Regards//Jyap

Blog master said...

Hi alex, hope it wont stop you from blogging.

I read your blog but at the end, I am the one who made the decision to buy or not.

In my opinion, these guys do not know trading or investing. I mean when someone says 'bullish breakout' they buy, without thinking... That's not investing, and even worst than gambling coz in gambling at least you decide which game to play.

It just that some people do not acknowledge that we dont know the future. If alex know which stock will go up in 100% accuracy, I bet you wont blog about it.

I am not saying your calls are not good. For me your calls is like 'hey, have a look at this stock'.

chan weng choi said...

不需太在意输家悪意的批评,不会檢讨自己为何投资錯误,而把责任推给他人。最后永遠是一个失败者。您只要対的天地与自己就夠了,他人看法並不重要。加油!继续努力。我認为您一级棒!

FrankKer said...

My 2 cents here. It is insanely unfair to blame others when you lose money in stocks trading.

Alex has been doing excellent job by giving his readers like me to pay attention to stocks which has triggered bullish or bearish sign.
I noticed recently there are some stocks failed to breakout when they have shown bullish signs, I believe those signs might be artificially created to attract buyers so they could unload their shares. However, Alex should not be held responsible for that.

To me, it is the decision you have to make whether you should long any stocks in KLSE. Unless you share your profits with the person who shares his views or findings on any counters, you have no rights to point your finger at him when the counters don't go as it should be.

富升 said...

Alex you has been going very good job to all of us for free!!

Thank you!!

Mark Tudor said...

sorry, i made money using Alex's help. So, comments like 3pm is unwarranted. i was not forced nor coerced into buying. It was entirely my choice!

so it hurts to lose money i know, but one should take responsibility for his own action.

K C said...

Again I say here I am not a great fan of technical analysis. However, I read Alex blog regularly and I sometimes make a purchase on certain fundamentally excellent stocks based on Alex's technical analysis. Often Alex is right, I have to say. There is a basis for the chart pattern, now I believe. But I do not believe in many technical analysts claim that "the chart won't lie". 3pm has a very relevant point and I believe many speculators kena slaughtered kuat kuat, again and again, because it is so easy for the big timers, the GLC is one of them, to "paint the tape" for Bursa stocks. So it is caveat emptor folks.

Gark said...

Hi Alex,

There are indeed a lot of immature Malaysians as you have exemplified for us to see.

Woe to those that just blindly feed off information without doing an ounce of effort on research, then they have only themselves to be blamed.

But then again, if we do not have these naive people around, then the stock market will not be as interesting. ;)

bursagenie said...

Alex,

Do not bother all this "itche-mouth",
I knew one of the blogger "Samxxxx" like to attack you regularly.

May be he is jealous about your TA knowhow !!! keep up the good work.

Alfred

Dom said...

Hi Alex

Just ignore 3pm. In all comments you wrote MAY and not SHOULD/MUST or the readers must use their discretion/analysis before deciding to buy. Moreover, this is a free blog and 3pm should read the DISCLAIMER and not just shift the blame.

Keep up the good work, bro

Mat Cendana said...

These guys must be real newbies or pure gamblers in the stock market. Technical analysis serves as a very good guide and is reliable enough BUT one must also be aware that it - and anything else - can never be 100% right all the time. There are other factors and variables that will influence the prices where the situation is very fluid.

This blog has been right big time on so many occasions - BJ Food, Censof, Rsawit, glove makers, Bintai, MPHB... If one had fully followed these opinions AND use his judgment to adapt to the ever-changing situations, the previous gains would easily offset whatever loss he may have made in the last few trades.

In my case, I decided to play safe and stayed out of the market due to concerns about Europe and other external factors. In doing so, I was forsaking THE CHANCE to make a profit. At the same time, I was protecting myself from losses. When you are in the stock market, you simply have to put up with all the vagaries... there's no other way.

To Alex: Please keep up the good work. Most of us here know technical analysis isn't always correct. But it's a good enough guide and your opinions so far have helped me make money.

Observer said...

Nothing is 100% certain in life except death and taxes.So listen/read advice, do your own homework (although some don't have the tools/knowledge, most people just don't do it out of plain ignorance/laziness), and take calculated risk.If the luck is in your favour, you will receive your blessings.

Unknown said...

dear readers of alex's blog..
"especially for those who feel iritated by comments from 3pm" and also for guys like dali, etc2 who cant accept criticisms. please understand one simple rule of blogging. when u put ur opinion out there for others to read you need to be able to accept criticims. to tell a reader/commenter that they are childish, or rude or dont read my blog if you don't like it,, is unbecoming of a blogger. if you dont want to hear what others have to say about ur opinion, or just want to hear good things bout urself, like dali, dont put ur piece on the blogsphere...go to a wedding instead, where people just say nice things...its ok to reprimand the commenter for using foul words but for godssake do not be a coward and start demonozing commenters like 3pm esp on ur blog where you have all the power to control him...be a bloody men, just like the sifu alec lu...at least he admits his mistakes and explains his situation..and for that alone i salute u alex...have a nice day

Loo said...

Hi Alex,

I am an avid fan of your blog and I feel that you are genuinely providing a free service out of your passion for technical analysis. It is extremely unfair for people like 3pm to run you down with expletives when the stocks he bought do not profit him. Frankly, he is the one to be blamed and the one to be accountable for his own actions. No one forced him into buying those stocks. He needs to know the risks associated with the stock market. And if he cant do that, he should not be in the stock market at all ....and not read this blog too. Keep up you good work here, Alex and ignore this particular senseless fella.

John Tan said...

To be honest, i kinda agrees with 3pm

Alex, you need to show some restrain. Just a little bit of rise, you already say bullish breakout...

luckily i check properly and didnt fully believe ur bullsh*t, or else i gone to holland already

and i ahve seen better klse bloggers that post usefull fundamentals.

and for you.... i describe your blog as lots of words, not much usefull content....lots of filler rubbish....

TehGK said...

Personally, I feel that Alex is giving a very neutral analysis, without much personal interest involved,as compare to certain bloggers...

JY said...

All recommendations made by you are purely based on technical analysis.

However technical trading is not for everyone. Alot of readers jump into a stock just because they saw the word "break out" in your blog, without really knowing what breakout means... let alone technical trading.


Chart reading is an art. There will always be whipsaws and fake breakouts. Avid traders should first have their own trading plan and money management before taking a position in a trade.

Even the most convincing breakout - Fajar on 11 Jun 2012, with a follow through the next day, can still be a fake breakout (there was a doubtful bearish meeting line on 13 Jun). Those who chased at RM1 would have lost 20% by now if no protective stop was set.

To conclude, readers who wish to enter a trade based on technical chart signals, should have their own trading plan and protective stops. They should not trade otherwise, as they will lose it all eventually once they catch a downtrending stock.

K C said...

Fully agreed with what "unknown" said above. I also agree with what TehGK said. Though I do not agree with what John Tan said above, I respect his right to criticize. Alex, I believe, would accept too.

JY said...

Reader John Tan posted a very good example of what I just mentioned technical trading is not for everyone.

Many readers have confused your call with an investment research report calls. Reader John Tan's comment "and i ahve seen better klse bloggers that post usefull fundamentals" clearly shows that he is confused between fundamentals calls and technical trading calls.

It's akin to using a tennis racquet to play badminton, thinking both racquets are the same.

In my opinion, trading is a game of probability. Charting increases the odds. To make money from technical trading does not require a 9/10 correct trading calls. Even a 3/10 accurate calls can still make you money if you manage your losses well and ride on the right calls. Managing losses is part of the game.

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,

You can ignore those blind followers which read and buy only without any hard work done. They treat KLSE as Casino.

Regards,
Ken

Loo said...

Readers like John Tan and 3pm are basically in a group of investors who expects that any buy signal generated in technical analysis to be 100% certain. This arises because this group of ppl do not know how technical analysis actually works and expects miracle from it. Those who are well versed in TA knows very well that one of its fundamental is that it provides information on when to buy (when there is a buy signal) and when to exit (when a sell signal is generated). In TA, there need to a strong disipline to sell when prices turn down such that losses, if any, are kept to the minimum. Those ppl who just buy and do not monitor the price movement have only themselves to blame. Nothing in the world is guaranteed. TA is an investment tool and as in any tools, if you use it in the proper manner, it is going to work well for you.

Salvatore_Dali said...

Alex,

Doing a great job, pls continue. 3pm has his points. I am not like you, I am worse when it comes to handling criticism..lol

I am not the polite blogger, yes I usually have positions in what I write, why else would I write if I did not believe in the stock?

I am not there to be the most popular blogger, don't like, can go fly kite, I am too old to care.

Cheers, and good luck.

Investor said...

John Tan and 3pm are of the same kind, bad English + assumption that a blogger's opinion must be 100% right or they have no right to post.

Come on guys, bloggers and investment banks give their views all the time. No one says you will definitely earn from your investment. LEARN to use them only as references. BE RESPONSIBLE for your own investments. Finally, calling an opinion you disgree with bullshit is plain immature.

WYS said...

Aiyo, they just need to grow up lar..

Gavin Teoh said...

Market is dynamic.

This 3pm must understand the view put up by any blogger can be changed based on the dynamic of price and volume, so if he/she does not know how to use/analyse the view/comments of bloggers likes Mr Alex, then too bad,only 3 pm himself/herself is to be blamed.

Alex, I personally think that what you have written are very good and it has been very good guide for me.

Alex Lu said...

To all who had commented on this post,

Thank you. All comments are feedback which in turn is the result of evaluation. To be sure, they are more than evaluation but the result of action taken based on the posts in this blog.

If we ignore feedback, we cannot change our negative behavior. Being human, we love to receive commendation on a job well-done instead of hearing recommendation on areas for improvement. But, we cannot improve or grow if we avoid the unpleasant things, our areas of weakness.

That's why I welcome feedback, even negative feedback. This & the subsequent related post is not about you-shouldn't-criticize-me but about how you should give your feedback. I understand there is unhappiness & anger in some comments. I will take note of these comments & adjust accordingly.