Thursday, July 26, 2012

Market Outlook as at July 26, 2012

FBMKLCI broke its 2-month old uptrend line yesterday. It failed to recovered above that uptrend line today. In the afternoon session, it continued to slide.

Chart 1: FBMKLCI's 120-min chart as at July 26, 2012_4.40pm (Source: Quickcharts)

This could signal the start of a correction similar to May 2012 or November 2011. It will soon test the 50-day EMA line at 1604. A breakdown of this support as well as the psychological 1600 mark could lead to a selldown where the index could hit lows between 1572 & 1556 (arrived at by way of a 2-3% horizontal downshift of the 50-day EMA line).

Chart 2: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at July 26, 2012_4.40pm (Source: Quickcharts)

As such, our market has turned ominously negative after today's sharp fall. Is this the end of the pre-election rally? We will wait & see.


claystation said...

as i had read your current posted about people blamed u? this and that..that is normal..we all are human being..and we cant sastified to everybody need..cheers...just coz of u are as reminser so people put high expectation on u...they had forgotten u are also human being. Nothing we can do, people mouth beyond our control.but we can control our own emotion and action. Nobody is perfect in share market...dont give up or be sad coz of them. CHEEEERRRRSSSS, from Grandma.

Nostradamus said...

ECB - Draghi spoil the fun for short sellers.

All caught with pants down.

Mat Cendana said...

BSKL will most probably go up today in response to the sharp rise in Europe and the US last night. But it's better not to be too over-exuberant, and especially since today is Friday and one doesn't know what could possibly transpire in the overseas markets tonight and also what might happen during the weekend.

Draghi's open-ended statement certainly boosted traders' sentiments. But what about ACTION? It's very easy to come out with a strong statement but it must be followed up.

Anyway, the more positive sentiments today will help me to take some profit and not have too many position over the weekend. We have seen how easily and quickly the market can change.

3pmsupertrading said...

just a day ago you mentioned our market had enter into exciting period due to the breakout of ci, now u are saying it may be over and turn into bear??
pls enlightened me, also, when does Fitter stock been classified into 1st liner?

Alex Lu said...

Hi 3pmsupertrading

I hope you would accept my reply in a post. I am doing it so that my readers know that your comment is published and I have replied to it. I may run the risk of being accused of using talking down to you but it is a risk that I prepared to accept.

Mat Cendana said...

[QUOTE]This could signal the start of a correction similar to May 2012 or November 2011. It will soon test the 50-day EMA line at 1604.

May 2012 - that was a stressful and very worrying period to have positions; and I had big ones then.

But there are key differences this time. Last May, all the world's markets were also down sharply; especially after JP Morgan reported their loss late on their Friday. Right now, the US and European markets are sharply higher, and the other Asian markets are doing okay too.

We will have to focus on our own BSKL for this is where we are trading. Over the past few weeks, it had been resilient and among the world's best performer by going up when others were sliding. It doesn't appear to be in sync with the others, which is both "good" and "bad".

Tomorrow will be interesting. Will it follow the overseas markets' rise by rebounding or will it slide further? I don't think traders will jump in immediately to buy as many did last Friday, only to be caught when prices fell. Many will be cautious tomorrow.