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Monday, November 30, 2015

Market Outlook as at November 30, 2015

As at 9.30am, FBNKLCI was down 12 points to 1670. Looking through the various indices, it seems that our market is likely to drift lower. The weakness is fairly pronounced amongst the blue chip stocks as reflected in FBMKLCI breaking below its intermediate uptrend line. This uptrend line took the FBMKLCI from the lower boundary of an irregular downward channel to the upper boundary of that channel. With the breakdown of the intermediate uptrend line, FBMKLCI is likely to drift lower.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Nov 27, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

2nd liner stocks (as represented by FBM70) is also in an irregular downward channel. It failed to surpass the upper line of the channel and it may be breaking the steep uptrend line. If so, FBM70 will drift lower.

 
Chart 2: FBM70's weekly chart as at Nov 27, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
 
 FBMSCAP - representing the 3rd liner stocks - has tentatively broken below the intermediate uptrend line. As a result, this index may begin to trade sideways with a downward bias.


Chart 3: FBMSCAP's weekly chart as at Nov 27, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Meanwhile, FBMACE & FBMFLG are both hanging onto their respective intermediate uptrend lines. If these uptrend lines are also violated, the respective index will likely to drift down.


Chart 4: FBMFLG's weekly chart as at Nov 27, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)


Chart 5: FBMACE's weekly chart as at Nov 27, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Overall, we can see that our technical rebound may have ran its course. The two remaining areas of relative strength - ACE market & fledgling stocks - are now exhibiting tentative toppish sign. We have to be very careful in our trading as the risk-to-reward proposition has now tipped against us.

2 comments:

Ks said...

What yours 2c on JCY's earnings this Qtr Alex?

Alex Lu said...

Hi Ks,

JCY's earnings for QE30/9/2015 is underwhelming.

It may explain why the stock's rally has lost momentum and testing the line connecting the recent peaks at RM0.84-0.85.

If it can't stay above the RM0.85 mark, it will drop back to RM0.80 for a while.

If you have the stock, you may want to take profit on half your position.