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Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Market Outlook as at March 1, 2017

FBMKLCI broke below the medium-term "uptrend line" at 1705 on Feb 24. MACD has also crossed below the MACD signal line, indicating further downside.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Mar 1, 2017 (Source: MalaysiaStock.Biz)  
 
On a longer time period (Chart 2), we can see that past breakdown of the medium-term uptrend line had led to sustained downtrend. Will this time be different?


Chart 2: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Mar 1, 2017_11.11am (Source: MalaysiaStock.Biz) 

Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that MACD has crossed above the MACD signal line. I have denoted the past 6 occasions when this has happened (A, B, C, D, E & F) and in all these occasions, the market has gone higher.


Chart 3: FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at Feb 28, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

In my opinion, we are seeing short-term weakness which may not be very severe because the market may be set for the continuation of its long-term uptrend.

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